Real Estate Recovery: Good and Misunderstood

Misunderstood News:

April saw a sharp fall in housing starts primarily due to apartment and condominium declines. The Census Bureau reported a 17% reduction for the month with a 38% drop in multi-family units. This emphasizes the volatility of the market since each livable unit with such buildings counts as an individual statistic. New building starts boasted gains of 14%–much coming from the building of large apartment buildings.

Straight–Forward Good News:

The two more stable measurements, single-family home starts, fell only 2% allowing the overall stat to remain 21% above last year’s levels. In addition, near-record low mortgage rates in combination with the drop in foreclosures and by extension a constricting of the new home supplies available for sale have all been positive strengthening influences on the housing market and national economic growth.

Take the good news with the bad but don’t get too carried away by either side!

http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/30/real_estate/home-lotteries/index.html?iid=EL

http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/16/news/economy/home-building/index.html

 ATHOMEINBOZEMAN

Mortgage Credits Adjusting to the Market Recovery

 

Mortgage standards that have kept many potential buyers out of the market are beginning to loosen. In addition, banks are speaking about increasing their mortgage business soon and shore up their residential mortgageassets within the next year.  All these prospective changes are being driven by a sharp rise in mortgage demand in conjunction with more home purchase applications being approved (60% compared to 55% of a year ago). This will combat but not fully eliminate the highly competitive home buying marketthat will still require standards such as 20% down.

 

“Fear Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will force lenders to take back risky mortgages continues to be the primary condition constraining lending,” RealtyTrac reports. “Other conditions that have lenders holding tight to mortgage purse strings include obtaining insurance, slow economic growth, concerns about securitization, and processing capacity.”

“Mortgage Squeeze Loosens, Somewhat,”

Data Shows Mortgage Credit Easing, Others Not so Sure

Here are the national averages for mortgage rates for the week ending May 16: 

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.51 percent, with an average 0.7 point, increasing from last week’s 3.42 percent average. A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.79 percent. 

• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.69 percent, with an average 0.7 point, rising from last week’s 2.61 percent average. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 3.04 percent. 

• 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 2.62 percent, with an average 0.5 point, rising from last week’s 2.58 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.83 percent. 

• 1-year ARMs averaged 2.55 percent, with an average 0.4 point, rising from last week’s 2.53 percent average. A year ago at this time, 1-year ARMs averaged 2.78 percent. 

 

 ATHOMEINBOZEMAN
  

7 Year-Highs: Home Prices Post Their Biggest Gains

Median Existing Single-Family saw their largest annual gain in more than seven years in the first quarter of 2013. The median home price rose from $158,600 to $176,600, a gain of 11.3%!

“The supply/demand balance is clearly tilted toward sellers in a good portion of the country,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Inventory conditions are expected to remain fairly constrained this year, so overall price increases should be well above the historic gain of one-to-two percentage points above the rate of inflation.  If home builders can continue to ramp up production, then home price growth is expected to moderate in 2014.” – See more at: http://www.inman.com/2013/05/09/home-prices-post-highest-gain-in-over-7-years/#sthash.KboECc0L.dpuf

Great news right! Not so fast…

Some dark shadows are brewing on the real estate horizon. Looking at who is leading the recovery, the rate at which the market is recovering, and the future governmental programs all paint a picture a little different than the major headlines.

This market boom is being spearheaded by investors. Seeing the low interest rates in conjunction with the depressed home prices, investors are able to move with more assurance and speed then the average home buyer. Once prices rise, many of these investors will pull back—leaving a hole in the market again.

“These days, I worry more about the economy hurting housing than housing hurting the economy,” said Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington D.C.-based think tank. Employment is intimately integrated with the housing market and hiring has slowed since March—the weakest growth since last June. Discouraged workers are increasingly leaving the workforce hinting that the housing market recovery will being slowing more and more. Once the jobs market improves, there will be a direct surge in the housing market once more.

Governmental cuts, $85 billion, will be hitting their peak this summer. The cuts will hit the gut of the American workforce since workers comp, military spending, the expiration of payroll tax breaks, and other pieces will all contribute to overall loss of income—impacting the spending capabilities of many families.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/18/real_estate/housing-recovery/index.html

Related: 5 best markets to buy a home

Related: Was your home a good investment?

ATHOMEINBOZEMAN

Bozeman Neighborhoods: Valley West—A Series

We are a community, joined together by schools, jobs, our love of the outdoors and the sharing of the services and amenities our great town has to offer.  However, we are separated in groups as we choose to live in subdivisions and neighborhoods.  I frequently find myself in a similar conversation with people new to the area.  From these conversations, I have found that the average buyer has several parameters they look at in choosing location.  Generally, the factors are price, convenience, and individual amenities of a particular home and neighborhood.   So, I thought it would be helpful to peer into some of our wonderful neighborhoods.

I chose to evaluate Valley West first because we recently moved and call this neighborhood home.  We were drawn to the neighborhood early in its development because of the park, lake and architectural interest and diversity.  Since moving here, I realize just how convenient it is.   My third grader walks or rides his bike to school.  My teenagers drive to the high school in 6 minutes (so I am told).  Four groceries, a fish market, banks, gas stations and the mall are all within a short bike ride or up to a four minute drive.  I am also 4 minutes from my office, which comes in handy when I’m late for dinner.

Valley West offers traditional and contemporary architecture, condos and single family residences with or without attached dwelling units.  Small lots encourage neighbors to congregate in the park to get to know one another, play with their kids and walk their dogs.  Kids meet at the park to play tag and tube on the creek.  Common walk areas were designed to “flow” through the neighborhood, providing a safe and natural connection to the community.  Groups frequent the pavilion in the summer and gather for ice skating at the pond in the winter.

The neighborhood’s residents’ life stages are diverse, ranging from the college student renting an ADU to retired individuals investing their lives in the community.  Therefore, several property choices are available.  Currently on the market are 5 condos ranging in price from $143,000-$239,000 and an average price per square foot of $132.00.  There are 7 single family homes on the market, including 4 existing homes and 3 new constructions.  The prices range from $234,900 – $499,500, with an average price per square foot of $150.00.

In the last 6 months, 7 single family homes have sold, ranging in price from $184,000-$485,000.  The average sold price per square foot was $142.00.  Ten condos have sold, ranging in price from $144,750-$261,250.  Of the sold condos, the average price per square foot was $111.00.

This is a series that will continue with blogs and newsletters.  The next article in the series will feature Harvest Creek.    If you would like to share your perspectives, I would love to include them in future articles.   If you would like to hear about a particular neighborhood, email me and I will be happy to include it.

ATHOMEINBOZEMAN

Montana Ranch Sales: Land Value in Montana

Companies from Bozeman to Billings have seen an uptick in investing in working ranches. Cattle prices are good and the prospect of the global world developing a stronger middle class only speaks of the demand for cattle to increase in the future. Grey Fay, a Bozeman-based real estate businessman, “sees the interest in ranch purchases as a play by American billionaires to add a tangible, low-return investment to their portfolios with the idea that land values have bottomed out and could appreciate considerably in the future.” (http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/ranch-sales-rise-as-wealthy-investors-put-cash-in-land/article_c0b70ee3-2e86-5a23-83f3-81e1eb281b5a.html)

Seeing the investment:

In 1972, a ranch could sell for $36/acre. In 2011, that same land sold for $500/acre. Even accounting for the inflation of the dollar through history, the land has doubled in value. Amenities on ranches extend beyond the utilitarian use of the land. Wildlife habitat, fishing, scenic views, and other nontangibles are spiking in value on top of the solid financial endeavor of running a ranch. Few investments are as secure as property and few property investments are as secure as one with the multiplicity of profitable uses as a ranch.

How does this inform Montanan values?

Places to hunt, fish, spend quality and semi-isolated time with family and friends are all strong central values of Montanans at large. With the city centers of Montana growing rapidly, the return to where Montana started speaks of how deep these important land and family ethics run. Time on a ranch is hard work and togetherness.

Future….

Trusting this strong market entirely is a bit naïve so those monitoring the market ought to remain skeptical. Fay sees ranch prices as bottomed out, but not yet appreciably rising making this moment in time as a good time to buy. Tomorrow, who knows… All that can be said is that there are “excellent opportunities everywhere right now.” (http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/ranch-sales-rise-as-wealthy-investors-put-cash-in-land/article_c0b70ee3-2e86-5a23-83f3-81e1eb281b5a.html)

ATHOMEINBOZEMAN

Springtime—A Blooming Housing Market

Home inventory is reaching its lowest point since 1999. This is stabilizing home prices in many markets, and since buyer traffic is continuing to pick up, multiple offers and bidding wars are going to become the common state of things. Many sellers still remain underwater while buyers are ready to buy, causing the housing inventory to continuously shrink. Currently, there is a 4.2-month supply of existing homes for sale, down from January’s 4.5-month supply, according to data from NAR.

“Buyer traffic is continuing to pick up, while seller traffic is holding steady,” Lawrence Yun, the National Association of REALTORS®’ chief economist says. “In fact, buyer traffic is 40 percent above a year ago, so there is plenty of demand but insufficient inventory to improve sales more strongly. We’ve transitioned into a seller’s market in much of the country.”

Buyers and sellers alike are finding themselves in better positions then they found themselves at last year at this time. Price gains are being counter-balanced by low mortgage rates, and it is shifting to a seller’s market…. But it is not all good news.

Unemployment remains high. Recession threats still loom at large. As you read the articles on the heating up of the housing market, just keep the larger picture in mind too. We are still far from normal.

Read More

Seller’s Market Developing in Much of the U.S.
25 Quick, Cheap, and Easy Home Sale Tips

 Will housing market’s revival last?

Housing heats up, but far from normal

 

 

ATHOMEINBOZEMAN

Home Ownership: Is the American Dream More Within Reach

“The most recent housing affordability data should be encouraging to many prospective home buyers, because it shows that home ownership remains within reach of median-income consumers even as most local markets appear to be on a recovery path,” says NAHB Chairman Rick Judson.

Nearly 75% of homes sold between Oct 2012 and December 2012 were to families earning a median income of $65,000 at a median price of $188,000.

“It is noteworthy that affordability remains historically high thanks to favorable mortgage rates even as national home price indexes show some rise in values,” says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

The exterior limits of this trend are found in Utah, with 94% of home sales in the affordable range, and San Fran, California with only 28% of home sales in this same category.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

ATHOMEINBOZEMAN

Better Marketing: Better Listings: Better Business

• Responsive Website(s): Having the contact information for not only the real estate office as a whole, but for each agent (with a bio on what they are a specialist in) is necessary for buyers, but it is just as important for selling agents. Finding the information to schedule a showing, provide feedback, and contact for interest. This may seem like a no brainer, but finding the contact information for agents is surprisingly difficult at times. In addition, having continuity throughout the office as to what to do when a call comes in for a listing maintains the professional, high priority and maximum attention to each potential lead that comes in.

• Traceable Traffic:  Knowing about the marketing tendencies of each listing individually is a key indicator of how to gage a ‘good listing.’ Knowing when the listing receives market rejection, a spike in views, and even plateaus are all valuable measurements to appropriately adjust the marketing strategies for a listing. Not all sites provide agents with this information let alone allow clients to see these trends.

• Local Market Trends: Finally, taking the trends of the individual listings and being able to expand that understand to what it means within the market at a whole is a deeply detailed-focus analytic process that takes years within the Gallatin Valley Real Estate market to be able to understand and iterate to clients. The juxtaposition of giving credence to individual listings and understanding them in the market at large is what will really set an agent apart.

ATHOMEINBOZEMAN